Predicting phenotypic and genotypic evolution given fluctuating selection

Esdras T

Aims

  • Develop a polygenic model that accurately predicts genotypic and phenotypic evolution featuring fluctuating selection

Genome

  • Phenotype is the sum of all allele’s effect plus random noise

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8
  • Loci numbers: 1, 10, 70, 100, 300
  • Standard deviations: 1, 2, 3, 4
  • Generation interval (GI): 10, 20, 30 (Linear changes)
  • GI: sinusoidal1 (20) and sinusoidal2 (5, 10, 15, 30)

Models

  • Neutral selection

  • Constant selection

  • Fluctuating selection(Linear & Sinusoidal)

Fitness Function

\[ \text{Fitness} = \exp\left(-\frac{1}{{\text{phenotype}}} \times (\text{phenotype} - \text{optimum})^2\right) \]

  • Optimum = mean(phenotype) ± nSD

Genotype file

Generation Position Frequency Effect
1 543033 0.99725 0.756542
1 652860 0.99155 0.221580
1 713875 0.98910 0.189974
1 774890 0.98090 2.506406
1 1006747 0.97920 0.333771
1 445409 0.97905 0.022710

Phenotype file

Generation meanFitness Phenotype Optimum
1 0.911877 109.5748 112.614
2 0.912294 109.5830 112.614
3 0.915522 109.6475 112.614
4 0.923517 109.8138 112.614
5 0.926507 109.8774 112.614
6 0.918121 109.7005 112.614

Alle Frequency (single plot FS)

Allele Frequency (single model)

Mean Allele Frequency (all variables)

Phenotypes (single plot FS)

Phenotypes (single model)

Phenotypes (all variables)

Questions for the group

  • How can I summarize the results to communicate parameters’ effect given all simulations?
  • what I can change on the plots or which plots I should use to convey the information from simulation?
  • Any other statistical analyses, apart from spectral analysis should I perform?
  • Which biological questions should I ask?